Diamonds will continue to sparkle despite a US recession
Last week, Ori Temkin, the chief executive of diamond polishing group Steinmetz noted that demand in the diamond market had exceeded supply for the last four to five years, and he also predicts that this imbalance would last for many more years before the supply is increased.
This is something he says he has believed for a long time. However, more evidence emerged this week to support his view… and it all has to do with energy…..
“We are quite positive about diamond sales this year,” he said “and it will be two to three years before supply increases again.”
Steimetz covers the entire diamond pipeline excluding mining-from-rough diamond trading and marketing, manufacturing, cutting, polished sales and marketing to jewellery creation and retail.
Mining is very important to Southern African economy…but most of the region’s countries are in the midst of a power crisis. In south Africa, it’s down to a booming economy coupled with an incompetent government. In Zimbabwe it is down to the actions of a delusional dictator.
Outages in South Africa have Caused the gold and platinum prices to soar to new highs. Rio Tinto has already said that it would review plans for a major aluminium investment in South Africa because of shortages. All this means is that the supply of these commodities will plummet, which will support prices.
But it’s not just South Africa that is having power problems. The situation is actually worse in Zimbabwe and the country could offer and insight into what is to become of South African mining industry.
On Wednesday, Rio Tinto said that 78% owned murowa diamond mine had seen a 40% fall in production in 2007, hurt by frequent power cuts, equipment failures and a delayed expansion program.
The mine produced 145,000 carats in 2007, compared with 240,000 carats in 2006.
A decline in diamond grade had been expected, but the company had not expected the extensive impact of electricity outages.
“Besides the anticipated decrease in grade with depth and the delay in the implementation of expansion project, production was adversely affected by ZESA power outages and contractor mining fleet breakdowns due to lack of spares,” the statement said.
Other UK-listed mining stocks exposed to power and political problems in Zimbabwe include Anglo Platinum, Implats, Aquarius Platinum and Mwana Africa.
The news from Rio Tinto makes me even more bullish on the demand price. Many investors have been concerned about investing in the sector because of fears of a US recession. Us citizens by 50% of diamonds sold annually.
However, with the emergence of India and China, the reliance of the industry on US sales appears to be waning. De Beers recently said that it expected strong demand from China, India and the Middle East to help sustain prices for “larger and better quality” diamonds.
This trend will continue, as will electricity shortages in mining driven economies. For this reason, I now like diamonds-ever more…. despite the crumbling US economy.